You take any bounce you can get in hockey. Poland got an amazing one to open against Kazakhstan as a puck hit off the glass, then the net, followed by one last bounce against Andrei Shutov that went into the net. That lucky goal a minute in was the only one for most of the match.

Kazakhstan eventually found the back of the net at the 48 minute mark. They would take the lead at the 57 minute mark before adding an empty-netter just a minute later. Poland did add one more goal with seconds to spare, but all that did was make it a one goal loss. 

While the game looked close on paper thanks to a few surges from the Polish offense, Poland only had 2 shots on goal until the 6:38 mark of the second period. 11 of the team’s 21 shots came within those final minutes of the 2nd period. For a majority of the game, Kazakhstan controlled the puck. Poland did well at blocking shots and keeping most of them wide, but the dam eventually broke. 

Now heading into the final two days of the event, what happens in the tournament is mostly out of Poland’s control. They’ll get to play the bottom-of-the-standings teams in Japan and Lithuania. These are the first two games in which Poland is strongly favored. If Poland manages to win both these matches, they’ll gain 4 to 6 points. That might be enough to get them to the Elite despite their losses to France and Kazakhstan. 

The most likely path is Kazakhstan beating both France and Ukraine in regulation (the win against Ukraine could also be in overtime). If this happens, Ukraine can at most get 10 points while France is locked at 8. Poland can still get 10 points with an additional two regulation wins and would have the tiebreaker over Ukraine for 2nd place. 

There are still other paths outside those results, but then you’re looking for upsets or points stolen by Lithuania or Japan. Which, while it would be an upset, can’t be ignored. 

Two of Lithuania’s losses in this tournament have been by one goal. They even led going into the third against Kazakhstan. Japan also led France until the final three minutes in the opening match of the tournament. Go back to last year’s event, where on the final day, Ukraine just needed a single point against Japan to clinch promotion. Japan, on the other hand, had nothing to play for standings-wise. Japan beat Ukraine 3-2 and crushed the dreams of the first Ukrainian promotion to the Elite since 2007. 

Poland is still very alive in this group. Japan and Lithuania are also still trying to fight off relegation. Poland itself is not yet safe from relegation; if they lose to both Japan and Lithuania without overtime, they’ll be relegated. 

These last two games are a chance for Poland to finish strong and show they’re a good Division 1 hockey team. In the challenging gauntlet at the start of the tournament, they showed they could fend off strong offensive attacks. They still haven’t played their best hockey for long stretches of the games. The floor of this squad is really high, as despite so many unnecessary penalties and turnovers in the defensive zone, they have only lost by one goal to the tournament favorites. These final two matches will give Poland a chance to show their best, whether for promotion or pride.

Standings Math

After day 3, here are the current odds to secure a Top 2 Spot.

Kazakhstan: 86%

Ukraine: 55%

France: 44%

Poland: 27%

Japan: 6%

Lithuania: 3%

Kazakhstan can clinch a spot pretty easily at the top, while France, Poland, and Ukraine will all be watching each other closely.

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Thumbnail Photo via polskihokej.eu