The start of the Division 1 Group A Men’s World Championship (D1A) has been a mixed bag for the white and red. They started the tournament with a massive 3-2 win over Ukraine. On the second day, they took a group favorite, France, all the way to round 10 of the shootout. It leaves Poland in third place.

It’s hard to get a read on who the real Team Poland is. They have had some peaks and valleys in the tournament. A huge problem is that Poland has spent just over an entire period now in the penalty box, with 20 minutes and 47 seconds shorthanded. Despite issues with playing clean hockey, the Polish penalty kill has been amazing, killing 90% of penalties, including a five-minute major penalty against France. Poland’s power play has also been better, with 3 goals on 9 attempts. This compares to the 3 for 35 they went over the last two World Championships. 

Make no mistake, this has been a much better Polish team than last year. But I don’t think they have played anywhere close to their best hockey either. Play in the defensive zone has been way too passive. Poland has mainly focused on protecting the middle, but eventually, these stronger teams will catch you there. That was seen on both of Frances’ goals as the zone had a leak and Jordann Perret was left wide open twice. But at the same time, they have survived in this box structure and only allowed 3 even-strength goals so far. 

On the offensive side, they have been the more inconsistent. Players are really struggling with the break-ins and are really forcing themselves to play on the boards. They have to find a way to attack the middle more. Late power plays also showed that Poland can lack creativity at times, as they struggled to generate anything late in their power plays versus France. They clicked early, but France adjusted. Once France locked in, Poland didn’t generate any dangerous chances with the man advantage.  

The second period against France showed how good Poland can be. They just need to put it together for 60 minutes and can’t keep shooting themselves in the foot. Star forward Kamil Walega missed almost the entire match against France after an illegal hit to the head penalty just 30 seconds into the match. The floor is high with this team, as even down their best forward, they took France to the brink. 

Now there is the biggest test of the tournament, Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan has always been the measuring stick for Poland. They’re the perfect level to judge against. They’re not carried overwhelmingly by a few stars. They have solid depth. Not a bunch of imports lifting them. They’re just solid in all aspects.

When we go back to the 2024 Worlds, it all came down to Kazakhstan and Poland for relegation. The two stayed steady against each other throughout the match until the final 10 minutes, when Poland started to fall apart, and their opponent in blue took full advantage. The score ended 3-1 after being tied with 10 minutes to go.  

A lot has changed since that match. Only 11 members of Poland’s squad in that loss are here at the 2026 D1As. On the opposing side, Kazakhstan only returns 11 as well. Kazakhstan brought in a new generation with 9 players making their debuts. They will be without two of their best players in forward Nikita Mikhailis and Valeri Orekhov. If you can’t win this match, you can’t survive at the Elite either. 

Standings Math 

Looking ahead, I would say Poland is in an okay spot, standing wise. They no longer control their own destiny, but there are still plenty of paths forward. As of right now, none of France, Kazakhstan, or Ukraine has played each other. Points are going to be lost in those games no matter what. To start, let’s just say every one of the nine remaining games goes to the odds favorite in a clean fashion. Here is what the standings would look like: 

1. Kazakhstan – 15pts
2. France – 11pts 
3. Poland – 10pts
4. Ukraine – 6pts
5. Japan – 3pts
6. Lithuania -0pts

In a tournament as tight as this one, that is not going to happen. But it gives you an idea of what Poland will need. Even if Poland were to lose to Kazakhstan and then win against Japan and Lithuania, they would only need France to lose 2 points to Lithuania and/or Ukraine.

Two days in, we still really need to see how this tournament will play out, but assuming all four outcomes (W, OTW, OTL, L) are equally likely in each matchup, here are the current odds to finish in the top two. 

Kazakhstan: 74.9%

France:  62.3%

Poland: 38.6%

Ukraine: 22.9%

Lithuania: 0.73%

Japan: 0.58%

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Thumbnail Photo via polskihokej.eu