I made a short mention of this in the October Polish Prospect update, but Łyszczarczyk is now in his 3rd OHL season. He really is not putting up the point totals I would have expected. After being signed as a free agent by the Sudbury Wolves, he put 50 points in 67 games. His great OHL rookie season made him a late-round pick on many draft boards and rankings. He would go undrafted, but earn an invite to the Toronto Maple Leafs’ development camp. He returned to the Wolves and struggled. In his sophomore campaign, he put up 30 points in 67 games. Łyszczarczyk needed a fresh start and got one when he was traded to the Owen Sound Attack in the offseason. He started off strong with 12 points in 12 games but has struggled since with 1 point in his last 9 games.
For most players in the OHL, their output improves with age and experience that has not been the case with Łyszczarczyk. For example, Dmitri Sokolov and David Levin, two former teammates of Łyszczarczyk, have both increased their output in their OHL careers. Sokolov increased his point total by 20 and his ppg by .37. David Levin added 23 points and .16 ppg. Łyszczarczyk is an outlier to the norm as his output has decreased.
Now we will focus on what Łyszczarczyk’s production appears to translate to.
Rookie Year. Age: 17 PPG: .75
For his rookie year, we found 51 matches. We defined matches as players in their age 17 seasons with a Point Per Game within .05 of .75 since 2000-01. Some notable matches were Gabrial Landeskog, Conor Brown, and Tobias Reider. Of the 51, 10 are still playing junior hockey so we will not count those in the percentages. Another thing although it does not matter, it is worth pointing out. Only 8 matches went undrafted like Łyszczarczyk, he really should have been drafted. 14.6% of the matches went on to play 200 NHL games or are currently in the NHL. This number should also increase as I expect players like Jason Dickinson and Andrew Mangiapane to also break into the NHL. The majority of players played at least 200 games in the AHL or in a top European league (KHL, NLA, SHL, Liiga, and DEL)
200 NHL Games or Active NHLer: 14.6%
200 AHL or Top European Leagues: 41.5%
200 ECHL or Lower European Leagues: 36.6%
Retired, College, or Amateur Hockey: 7%
It really shows that after his rookie season, Łyszczarczyk looked to be a great player with a great chance of playing in NHL or another one of the best professional leagues.
Second Season. Age:18 PPG: .52
This is where it takes a bad turn for Łyszczarczyk. Players who now matched with Łyszczarczyk were in 18-year-old season, and within .05 of .52. We had 115 matches this time more than double the previous. 13 are still playing junior hockey, so it is something I will monitor and update later. Of the 102 who are past junior hockey, 51% fall under the retired, college, or amateur hockey category.
Retired, College, or Amateur Hockey: 51%
200 ECHL or Lower European Leagues: 21.6%
200 AHL or Top European Leagues: 21.6%
200 NHL Games or Active NHLer: 5.9%
The numbers really take a scary decline during his second year. They truly make you question what does Poland actually have in Łyszczarczyk. That is what makes his 3rd season so important. The 6 NHL players, Łyszczarczyk matched with all had career-high breakout seasons in their 3rd season. This is what Łyszczarczyk needs to do. His first season shows he has the skill to do. Players on the Owen Sound Attack like Nick Suzuki and Jonah Gadjovich ensure that there is enough talent around him to put up points. It will be interesting to see how he finishes the season. We have seen point per game production and 1 point in 9 games already this year. We will hold off on comparables for this third season till it is finished.